Team Stats and Insights for Twins vs Rays Match Preview – 9/4/2024

Minnesota Twins

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Minnesota Twins visit Tropicana Field on September 4, 2024, to face the Tampa Bay Rays, both teams are looking to solidify their standings. Minnesota, with a record of 75-63, is above average this season, while Tampa Bay comes in at 68-70, having an average showing. The stakes are somewhat lower for the Rays, as they have been eliminated from winning their division, potentially leaving them eyeing a Wild Card spot. In their previous matchup, the Rays edged the Twins 2-1, marking a crucial victory that boosted their morale.

The pitching matchup features Cole Sulser for the Rays, who has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.40, signifying that he may have been a bit unlucky despite some underlying stats suggesting he could perform better. In contrast, the Twins will counter with right-hander Ronny Henriquez, sporting an impressive 2.45 ERA, although projections indicate he might experience a dip in performance moving forward due to some favorable previous outcomes.

Offensively, the Twins hold an edge, ranking 9th overall, bolstered by Willi Castro’s standout season. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks a dismal 25th overall. However, the projections suggest the Rays could score around 4.12 runs today, slightly lower than the Twins’ expected 4.22 runs, which indicates a close contest is anticipated.

With both teams vying for momentum, this game promises to be another tightly contested affair, showcasing the tension often inherent in divisional matchups. Betting markets reflect this sentiment, with both teams offering balanced odds, making it a compelling day for fans and bettors alike.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Matt Wallner has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last year’s 97.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected lineup today (.310 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .322 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+105)
  Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Minnesota’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Josh Lowe, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 76 of their last 128 games (+19.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games (+8.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Willi Castro has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.85 Units / 53% ROI)