Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
(-105/-115)-165
As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Texas Rangers on September 15, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of a crucial series. The Mariners currently sit at 75-73, having an average season, while the Rangers trail with a record of 71-77, marking a below-average performance. This matchup is particularly significant as it is the fourth game of the series, and the Mariners are looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage at T-Mobile Park.
In their last game, the Mariners were able to secure a win, bolstered by a strong performance from their pitching staff. George Kirby is projected to take the mound for Seattle, and he comes into this game as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasting a solid ERA of 3.77. Kirby has shown the ability to limit earned runs, projecting to allow only 1.9 today, which is elite, though he does struggle with hits allowed, projected at 4.8.
On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi will pitch for the Rangers. Eovaldi has had a mixed season but remains a capable arm. The Rangers’ offense has struggled this year, ranking 24th overall, and they will need to find a way to support Eovaldi if they hope to compete. The projections indicate that the Mariners are favored, with a projected win probability of 64%, compared to the Rangers’ 36%.
Seattle’s offense, while ranking 23rd in MLB, has seen Victor Robles step up recently, hitting .538 with four stolen bases over the last week. Meanwhile, Nate Lowe has led the Rangers, showcasing his power with two home runs and a .500 batting average in the same span.
With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, this matchup is expected to be tightly contested, and the Mariners may have the edge with their superior pitching and recent form. Betting on Seattle could present value, considering their projected advantage in this game.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Heaney to throw 84 pitches in this outing (15th-most of all pitchers today), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
- Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Jonah Heim’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 88.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 79.9-mph over the past two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Texas Rangers hitters as a group grade out 22nd- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 7.4% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)George Kirby has utilized his four-seam fastball 5.6% less often this season (33.8%) than he did last season (39.4%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.244) suggests that J.P. Crawford has experienced some negative variance this year with his .197 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 72 games at home (+12.27 Units / 15% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+14.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)Mitch Garver has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 30% ROI)