Team Stats and Insights for Padres vs Rockies Match Preview – 8/17/2024

San Diego Padres

@

Colorado Rockies

On August 17, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will host the San Diego Padres at Coors Field for the second game of their series. This matchup features a Rockies team struggling significantly this season with a record of 45-78, while the Padres are performing well at 69-54. The Rockies secured a rare victory in their last game against the Padres, winning 7-3, which could provide a morale boost as they face a challenging opponent again.

Kyle Freeland is slated to start for the Rockies. He has had a rough season, sporting a 5.75 ERA and ranking 164th among MLB starting pitchers. His last outing was abbreviated, leading to concerns about his ability to go deep into games. Freeland projects to pitch around 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 3.6 earned runs and 7.0 hits, which doesn’t inspire confidence against a strong Padres lineup.

On the other side, Dylan Cease is projected to start for the Padres. With a 3.41 ERA and a solid 20th ranking among MLB pitchers, Cease has proven effective this year. His ability to rack up strikeouts (6.9 per game projected) contrasts sharply with Freeland’s low strikeout rate, which could give the Padres a significant advantage, especially given that they have the 8th best offense in MLB.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Padres are favored and expected to perform well today, with projections suggesting they could score around 6.72 runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ offense, though ranked 17th, has shown flashes of talent and may find some success against Cease, especially after their recent win. As the Rockies look to build momentum from their last game, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle between struggling and contending teams.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Dylan Cease’s 96.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.4-mph spike from last year’s 94.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar’s true offensive talent to be a .323, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .054 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .377 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Freeland to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (5th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Charlie Blackmon has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Drew Romo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Romo in the 14th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+165)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games at home (+8.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-190)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 49 games (+12.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 50 games (+32.10 Units / 64% ROI)