Team Stats and Insights for Giants vs Marlins Match Preview – 6/1/2025

San Francisco Giants

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to take on the San Francisco Giants at LoanDepot Park on June 1, 2025, both teams find themselves in a challenging position in the National League. The Marlins, sitting with a disappointing record of 23-33, are in the midst of a tough season, while the Giants boast a better record of 32-26, indicating a more successful campaign thus far. Miami is coming off a significant win, having shut out the Giants 1-0 in their last matchup on May 31, providing a glimmer of hope as they look to pull off a repeat performance.

The pitching matchup features Marlins’ Ryan Weathers, a left-handed pitcher with an impressive 1.15 ERA this season, against the Giants’ Hayden Birdsong, whose inconsistent performance has seen him struggle this year. While Weathers ranks as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB, Birdsong is viewed as one of the league’s weakest, according to advanced stats. Weathers has excelled in recent outings, notably throwing a complete game shutout earlier this week, which bodes well for Miami’s prospects as they face a Giants lineup that has struggled offensively, ranking 25th in both batting average and home runs.

The projections indicate that Miami’s offense is average at best, ranking 19th overall, but they could capitalize on Birdsong’s propensity to give up hits, as he projects to allow 4.9 on average today. Conversely, the Giants’ offensive struggles against a left-handed pitcher like Weathers could limit their scoring opportunities. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a potential low-scoring affair.

With the Marlins’ recent victory fresh in their minds and a stout performance from Weathers expected, Miami might just have the edge to make it two in a row against San Francisco.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Hayden Birdsong is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Extreme flyball batters like Wilmer Flores generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Weathers.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Ryan Weathers’s four-seamer percentage has spiked by 9.1% from last year to this one (39.7% to 48.8%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Eric Wagaman is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+5.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.85 Units / 45% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 63% ROI)