Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
(+100/-120)-145
The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to clash at Yankee Stadium on October 30, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. With both teams featuring powerful offenses, this game holds intrigue for fans and bettors alike. The Yankees, fresh off a commanding 11-4 victory against the Dodgers on October 29, will be looking to extend their momentum in this fifth game of the series.
On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Gerrit Cole, who ranks as the 30th best pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his high ranking, Cole’s xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate this season. Cole was solid in his last outing on October 25, when he pitched six innings, allowing just one earned run. However, facing a potent Dodgers lineup that ranks 1st in home runs could challenge Cole’s high-flyball tendencies.
For the Dodgers, Jack Flaherty takes the mound, bringing his 13-7 record and 3.17 ERA to the Bronx. Flaherty is ranked 69th, indicating a reliable above-average performance this season. In his last start, Flaherty delivered a steady performance, striking out six over five innings. His control could be pivotal against a Yankees lineup known for drawing walks, ranking 1st in that category.
The Yankees’ offense, ranked 3rd overall, is led by Aaron Judge, who boasts a .309 batting average and a 1.117 OPS this season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers counter with Shohei Ohtani, who has a .304 average and 1.018 OPS, highlighting the star power on both sides.
The projections favor the Yankees with a 56% chance to win, slightly above their implied probability, suggesting a closer game than the odds indicate. With both bullpens ranked in the top 5, expect a tightly contested battle where every hit, walk, and strikeout could swing the outcome.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Jack Flaherty has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.6 adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Gerrit Cole in the 90th percentile among all SPs in the game.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- The New York Yankees (22.4% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-prone batting order of the day.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 79 of their last 141 games (+15.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 108 games (+24.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)Max Muncy has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+7.85 Units / 28% ROI)