Team Stats and Insights for Dodgers vs Cardinals Match Preview – 6/6/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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St. Louis Cardinals

On June 6, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch Stadium for the first game of their series. Both teams are currently in a competitive race, with the Dodgers holding a solid record of 38-25, while the Cardinals sit at 34-28, showcasing their above-average performance this season. The Dodgers enter this matchup fresh off a thrilling 6-5 victory, while the Cardinals are looking to bounce back after a 7-5 loss in their last outing.

The Cardinals will rely on Sonny Gray, who has been a standout this season with a 6-1 record and a solid 3.65 ERA. Notably, Gray performed exceptionally well in his last start, throwing 7 innings of shutout baseball with 10 strikeouts. His low walk rate of 5.0 BB% should play well against a Dodgers lineup that is patient but may struggle to draw walks against his control.

In contrast, the Dodgers will counter with Justin Wrobleski, who has had a rough start to the year, sporting an 8.00 ERA. Wrobleski’s last outing was a struggle, allowing 8 earned runs in just 5 innings. With the Cardinals offense ranked 10th overall and 4th in batting average, they could capitalize on Wrobleski’s inconsistency.

The projections suggest that the Cardinals may be undervalued in this matchup, with an implied team total of 4.40 runs. Given their strong offensive rankings and Gray’s recent form, they could very well outshine their odds against a Dodgers team that, while powerful offensively, has shown vulnerabilities in their pitching staff. Expect a closely contested game as both teams vie for an early edge in this series.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Justin Wrobleski is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #27 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  As it relates to his home runs, Tommy Edman has had some very good luck this year. His 31.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.0.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense ranks as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Sonny Gray’s cut-fastball rate has fallen by 5.4% from last season to this one (17.8% to 12.4%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.57 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 50% ROI)