Arizona Diamondbacks
Texas Rangers
(-105/-115)-145
As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 13, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of a competitive series. The Rangers currently sit at 61-60, having lost their last encounter against the Diamondbacks by a score of 3-2. Arizona, at 58-62, is struggling this season, but they have a strong offensive lineup, ranking 4th in MLB.
The Rangers will send Merrill Kelly to the mound, who has had a decent season with a 9-7 record and a solid 3.38 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as his 4.07 xERA indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this year. Kelly’s last outing was lackluster, where he allowed 4 earned runs over just 4 innings on August 8.
In contrast, Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher, has been inconsistent despite his above-average ranking. Gallen holds a 9-12 record and a disappointing 5.31 ERA, but his 4.03 xFIP suggests he might be due for better results. His last start was impressive, going 6 innings with only 1 earned run, which could bode well for Arizona.
Offensively, the Rangers have struggled, ranking 28th in MLB, while the Diamondbacks are thriving with a much higher ranking and have shown recent power at the plate, with their best hitter hitting .444 over the last week. Given the Rangers’ underwhelming offense and Kelly’s potential vulnerabilities, the Diamondbacks could find opportunities to capitalize.
With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Rangers favored at -150, bettors might find value in considering Arizona’s chances against a struggling Rangers lineup, especially with their potent offense.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Zac Gallen’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1-mph decrease from last year’s 93.8-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)In the last week, Geraldo Perdomo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.315 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .331 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Recording 17.3 outs per GS this year on average, Merrill Kelly places in the 82nd percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Joc Pederson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 99-mph in the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Texas has really hit the ball hard. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (96.2 mph) ranks among the league’s best: #5 in the league this year.Explain: Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter’s best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 116 games (+10.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 77 games (+15.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+115)Corey Seager has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.55 Units / 23% ROI)