Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
(-110/-110)-140
On September 8, 2024, the Houston Astros will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Minute Maid Park for the third game of their series. The Astros, currently sitting with a record of 77-65, are having an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks are slightly ahead at 79-64, enjoying a solid year. Yesterday, the Astros triumphed over the Diamondbacks with a decisive 11-5 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.
Justin Verlander is projected to take the mound for the Astros. Although Verlander has struggled this season with a 3-5 record and a 4.52 ERA, he still ranks as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is above average. However, his recent outing was concerning, where he allowed 5 earned runs over 5 innings. Verlander’s projections suggest he will pitch 6.0 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters, which could bode well against the Diamondbacks’ lineup.
Ryne Nelson, the projected starter for Arizona, has been a mixed bag this season. With a 10-6 record and a 4.15 ERA, he has shown flashes of potential but is considered below average in the grand scheme of things. In his last start, he performed well, going 7 innings with only 2 earned runs.
The Astros boast the 10th best offense in MLB and rank 2nd in team batting average, while the Diamondbacks have the 2nd best offense overall. Yet, projections indicate that the Astros will score 4.87 runs today, compared to the Diamondbacks’ 3.86. With a high implied team total of 4.54 runs for the Astros, betting on them could be a valuable move, especially considering this matchup’s high stakes.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ryne Nelson has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.3% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Typically, batters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Justin Verlander.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Today, Pavin Smith is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.4% rate (95th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Justin Verlander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Out of all starters, Justin Verlander’s fastball spin rate of 2397 rpm grades out in the 83rd percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)Jeremy Pena is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (-140)The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Houston Astros.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 140 games (+16.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 111 games (+26.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 33% ROI)