Team Stats and Insights for Cubs vs Cardinals Match Preview – 6/26/2025

Chicago Cubs

@

St. Louis Cardinals

On June 26, 2025, a key matchup in the National League Central unfolds as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals enter this game with a record of 44-37, marking an above-average season. In contrast, the Cubs sit atop the division with a strong 47-33 record, showcasing their exceptional play. Both teams are coming off a heated series where the Cubs took the previous game against the Cardinals, adding even more tension to this matchup.

With Andre Pallante set to take the mound for St. Louis, the Cardinals are counting on his ability to control the game. Though Pallante holds a 5-3 record and an ERA of 4.48, his 3.56 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and may be poised for improvement. His ground-ball percentage of 65% could serve him well against the potent Cubs offense, which ranks 4th in the league in home runs with 118.

On the flip side, Shota Imanaga is expected to start for Chicago. With a 3-2 record and an impressive 2.82 ERA, he appears to be in good form. However, his 4.83 xFIP indicates a possible regression, making this matchup intriguing from a pitching perspective.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 12th in MLB, but their current slumping performance needs to be addressed. Meanwhile, the Cubs boast the 4th best offense overall, underscoring their strong lineup. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, hinting at an expectation of runs.

The Cardinals, despite being underdogs with an implied team total of 4.22 runs, have the potential to surprise. Given the Cubs’ reliance on power hitting and Pallante’s groundball tendency, this matchup could shift in favor of St. Louis if Pallante can effectively manage Chicago’s offense.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Carson Kelly has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.1-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.5-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Andre Pallante was on point in his last start and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.256) implies that Alec Burleson has been lucky this year with his .303 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• St. Louis’s 91.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #27 club in the game this year by this standard.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+10.62 Units / 37% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 71 games (+6.25 Units / 6% ROI)
• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Andre Pallante has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.05 Units / 72% ROI)