Athletics
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-170
As the Seattle Mariners host the Oakland Athletics on March 29, 2025, both teams come off contrasting performances from their last matchup, with the Mariners suffering a shutout loss, 7-0, while the Athletics enjoyed a strong victory by the same score. This game marks the third in the series and is significant for both teams, as they seek to build momentum early in the season. Currently, both the Mariners and Athletics hold records of 1-1, and both are projected to have average seasons.
On the mound, the Mariners are set to start Bryce Miller, who ranks as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Miller’s projections indicate he could pitch an average of 5.2 innings while allowing just 1.7 earned runs, showcasing his potential for a strong outing. However, he also has troubling projections for hits and walks allowed, which could pose challenges against any lineup.
Osvaldo Bido will take the hill for the Athletics, but his performance has been less than stellar, as he is ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB. Bido is projected to pitch only 4.5 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs while struggling with a below-average strikeout rate. Given the Mariners’ offensive struggles, currently ranking 22nd in MLB, they’ll need to capitalize on Bido’s weaknesses if they hope to secure a win.
Despite their offensive challenges, the Mariners are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -170, reflecting an average implied team total of 3.93 runs. In contrast, the Athletics find themselves as underdogs at +150, with a very low implied team total of just 3.07 runs. With the Mariners looking to bounce back after their previous defeat, this game presents an opportunity for them to leverage their home-field advantage against a struggling opponent.
Athletics Insights
- Athletics – Moneyline (+150)The Athletics outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Wilson in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryce Miller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryce Miller to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+100/-130)J.P. Crawford is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games at home (+13.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Athletics – Moneyline (+150)The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 80 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)