Stream the Rangers vs Red Sox Game Live – 8/12/2024

Texas Rangers

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox host the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park on August 12, 2024, both teams find themselves at critical junctures in their seasons. The Red Sox, holding a record of 61-55, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rangers sit at 55-63, struggling significantly with a 25th place ranking in offense. This matchup marks the beginning of a three-game series, and for the Red Sox, a bounce-back opportunity after a disappointing 10-2 loss to the Houston Astros on August 11. The Rangers also faced defeat in their last outing, falling 8-7 to the New York Yankees.

On the mound, the Red Sox will send out Brayan Bello, who has had a decent season despite a somewhat high ERA of 5.16. Notably, his advanced metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky this year, as evidenced by his xFIP of 3.73. Bello’s performance has been solid enough for a 10-5 record, but his projection of allowing 5.8 hits and 1.6 walks today raises concerns.

In contrast, Tyler Mahle takes the ball for Texas, and while his ERA is a stellar 1.80, his high xFIP of 5.70 indicates that he may be due for a regression. His skill set as a low-strikeout pitcher going against a high-strikeout offense like Boston’s could play to his advantage.

Looking at the lineup, the Red Sox boast the 4th best offense in MLB, showcasing a powerful attack that includes standout Jarren Duran, who’s been exceptional this season. Meanwhile, the Rangers rank 25th in offense, making this a potential mismatch.

Despite the betting markets suggesting a close game with Boston’s moneyline at -130, projections indicate that the Rangers may offer some value, as they have a slightly better-than-expected chance of winning based on recent performance trends.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Tyler Mahle’s 2350.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 75th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Corey Seager has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Brayan Bello projects for an average of 5.9 hits in today’s game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.244) suggests that Connor Wong has had some very good luck this year with his .293 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Boston Red Sox in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .313, which is a good deal lower than their actual wOBA of .330 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+16.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 46% ROI)
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Jonah Heim has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.75 Units / 34% ROI)