Stream the Cardinals vs Rockies Game Live – 9/24/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Colorado Rockies

As the season draws close to its finale, the Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals face off on September 24, 2024, at Coors Field. The Rockies, holding a 60-96 record, are enduring a rough season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, with a 79-77 record, are having an average year, as they stay afloat in the standings. Both teams are coming off rest days, adding an element of unpredictability to this matchup.

The Rockies will send Ryan Feltner to the mound. Despite his 3-10 Win/Loss record and a 4.73 ERA, Feltner’s 4.20 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and has the potential to perform better. Nevertheless, his projected 4.8 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed do not inspire much confidence. On the flip side, Michael McGreevy will start for the Cardinals. With an impressive 0.90 ERA over just one start, his underlying numbers like a 2.83 xFIP suggest he has been fortunate and may not maintain his early success.

Offensively, both teams rate as average. Colorado ranks 19th overall, with a slightly better power display, ranking 15th in home runs. St. Louis, meanwhile, ranks 18th in offense but struggles more in the power department, sitting at 24th for home runs. Ryan McMahon and Brendan Donovan are the players to watch, coming into the game with hot streaks over the past week.

The game projects to be a high-scoring affair, given the high Game Total of 10.5 runs and both teams’ implied team totals exceeding five runs. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, this matchup is as evenly matched as it can get, with each team holding a 50% win probability. The markets slightly favor the Cardinals, but the projections suggest a nail-biter is in the making.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Michael McGreevy to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Siani – Over/Under Hits
  Michael Siani is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Colorado (#3-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Today’s version of the Cardinals projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .308 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .321 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  With a 0.49 gap between Ryan Feltner’s 4.73 ERA and his 4.24 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year and figures to perform better in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Michael Toglia has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 8.4% Barrel% of the Colorado Rockies ranks them as the #10 club in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 55 games at home (+9.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.55 Units / 41% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-230/+175)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 50% ROI)