Stream the Cardinals vs Rockies Game Live – 9/24/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies, mired in a disappointing season at 60-96, are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals at Coors Field on September 24, 2024. While the Rockies’ playoff hopes have long faded, they aim to finish the season strong against a Cardinals team sitting at a balanced 79-77. The game, being the first of their series, offers a glimpse into two contrasting seasons.

On the mound, the Rockies’ Ryan Feltner will square off against the Cardinals’ Michael McGreevy. Feltner has struggled this season, evidenced by his 3-10 record and a 4.73 ERA, though his 4.21 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit unlucky. On the bright side, Feltner’s experience from 28 starts this year might provide some stability on the hill. Meanwhile, McGreevy, who has only started once this season, boasts an impressive 0.90 ERA but a 2.83 xFIP indicates he’s due for some regression. With these pitching matchups, runs might come in bunches.

The Rockies’ offense is ranked 19th in MLB, showing an average power ranking, while their bullpen struggles rank them 20th. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ lineup is nearly neck-and-neck with the Rockies in overall production, holding the 18th spot, though their bullpen is slightly better, standing at 18th.

Notably, the Rockies have a tendency to swing and miss, which could play into McGreevy’s hands. However, the Rockies’ impatience at the plate may also counteract as McGreevy is a low-walk pitcher. While markets predict a close game with the Cardinals as slight favorites at -120, projections give them a 52% chance of victory and estimate them to score about 5.60 runs. All signs point to a game where offense might just steal the show.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Michael McGreevy to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  When it comes to his home runs, Alec Burleson has been very fortunate this year. His 22.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.6.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  With a 0.49 gap between Ryan Feltner’s 4.73 ERA and his 4.24 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year and figures to perform better in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Ryan McMahon has a ton of pop (80th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (29.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael McGreevy doesn’t generate many whiffs (15th percentile K%) — great news for McMahon.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The 8.4% Barrel% of the Colorado Rockies ranks them as the #10 club in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 55 games at home (+9.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.55 Units / 41% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-215/+165)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 50% ROI)