Starting Lineup for White Sox vs Red Sox – September 08, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on September 8, 2024, there’s a clear disparity between the two teams’ seasons. The Red Sox, sitting at 72-70, are having an average year, while the White Sox languish at 32-111, marking one of the worst seasons in recent memory. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it follows a competitive game yesterday, where the Red Sox edged the White Sox 7-5.

On the mound, the Red Sox are projected to start Richard Fitts, who, despite being ranked 251st among MLB starters, is coming off an average outing. He’s expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs. In contrast, Chris Flexen of the White Sox has struggled mightily this season, with a 2-14 record and an ERA of 5.36. Flexen’s last start was abbreviated, lasting just three innings and yielding three earned runs, which raises concerns about his effectiveness against a potent Red Sox lineup.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 6th in MLB, boasting a strong batting average and a powerful lineup led by Jarren Duran, who has excelled this season. The projections suggest that Boston could score around 5.71 runs today, supported by their recent performance and Flexen’s struggles. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s offense ranks 30th in MLB, making it difficult for them to keep pace.

The Red Sox are significant betting favorites with a current moneyline of -260, reflecting a 70% implied win probability. However, projections indicate they might be undervalued, as they are expected to dominate this matchup against a White Sox team that has struggled throughout the season.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chris Flexen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Among all SPs, Chris Flexen’s fastball velocity of 90.7 mph is in the 11th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Andrew Benintendi will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Richard Fitts has been given a below-average leash this year, tallying an -12.6 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.215) provides evidence that Tyler O’Neill has been very fortunate this year with his .258 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Boston Red Sox have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Wilyer Abreu, Connor Wong, Trevor Story, Tyler O’Neill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.05 Units / 45% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)