Starting Lineup for Red Sox vs Yankees – September 15, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face off against the Boston Red Sox on September 15, 2024, the stakes remain high in this American League East rivalry. After a lopsided 7-1 defeat to the Red Sox in their last contest, the Yankees will look to bounce back at Yankee Stadium. Currently, the Yankees hold a solid 86-63 record, showcasing a strong season, while the Red Sox sit at 75-74, having had an average year.

The Yankees will send Carlos Rodon to the mound, a left-handed pitcher who has been effective this season with a 14-9 record and a 4.21 ERA. Rodon’s last start was impressive, where he went 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 9 batters. His ability to generate strikeouts (27.1 K%) may play a crucial role against a Red Sox offense that ranks 3rd in MLB in strikeouts.

On the other side, Tanner Houck is set to start for Boston. While Houck has shown flashes of effectiveness, his recent performance saw him yield 4 earned runs in 5 innings. The Yankees’ offense, ranking 3rd overall in MLB, is led by Aaron Judge, who boasts a robust .321 batting average and an OPS of 1.140. The projections indicate that the Yankees are expected to score a significant 5.21 runs on average in this game, further underscoring their offensive potency.

Despite their recent setback, the Yankees are positioned as strong favorites with a high implied team total of 4.49 runs. With Rodon on the mound and their powerful lineup, they look to seize the day against the Red Sox and turn the tide in this series.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 0.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line (-110)
  Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #5 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Danny Jansen has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.5% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Carlos Rodon’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (50.7% vs. 39.6% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Giancarlo Stanton has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.1-mph average to last year’s 95.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Projected catcher Jose Trevino profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 100 games (+16.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 away games (+10.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jose Trevino – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)
  Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 14 games at home (+14.35 Units / 72% ROI)