Starting Lineup for Red Sox vs Blue Jays – September 23, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays gear up to host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre on September 23, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the American League East. The Blue Jays, with a 73-83### record, are enduring a below-average season, while the Red Sox sit at an even 78-78###, representing a more balanced campaign. Despite their struggles, the Blue Jays still have a slight edge according to betting markets, with an implied win probability of 52%.

The pitching matchup features Toronto’s Chris Bassitt against Boston’s Tanner Houck. Bassitt, ranked 74th among approximately 350 starting pitchers, has been a reliable presence on the mound with a 4.16### ERA and a solid projection for today’s game, including 6.5 strikeouts on average. Meanwhile, Houck, ranked 33rd, boasts an impressive 3.21### ERA, although his 4.12 xERA suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this season. The projections indicate this could be a close contest, with both pitchers expected to allow around 2.3 earned runs on average.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have struggled to find their power, ranking 25th in home runs and 27th in stolen bases. However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a standout performer over the last week, hitting .481 with two homers. On the other hand, the Red Sox offense ranks 8th overall, with strong showings in batting average and home runs. Nick Sogard has been particularly hot, posting a .500 batting average over the past week.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen, ranked 24th, could be a vulnerability, especially against Boston’s 14th-ranked bullpen. However, with the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, aligning with the betting markets, Toronto seems to have a slight edge in what promises to be a tightly contested matchup.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+100)
  The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under Total Bases
  Tyler O’Neill has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.2-mph average to last year’s 92.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Triston Casas hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  Chris Bassitt has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under Total Bases
  Davis Schneider is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Boston (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 21.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+15.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under Team Total
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.10 Units / 59% ROI)
• Vaughn Grissom – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Vaughn Grissom has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)