Starting Lineup for Red Sox vs Blue Jays – September 23, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre on September 23, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the American League East. The Blue Jays, with a 73-83 record, are enduring a below-average season, while the Red Sox sit at a balanced 78-78, having been eliminated from division contention but still holding onto hopes of a Wild Card berth.

Toronto enters this matchup after a narrow 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, while Boston is riding high following a commanding 9-3 victory over the Minnesota Twins. The Blue Jays will be looking to rebound, and they’ll turn to Chris Bassitt on the mound. Bassitt, ranked as the 72nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had an up-and-down year with a 10-13 record and a 4.16 ERA. Despite a strong pedigree, Bassitt’s last outing was cut short, spanning only four innings where he allowed six hits and three walks.

The Red Sox counter with Tanner Houck, who brings a solid 3.21 ERA to the table. Houck is ranked 32nd among his peers, suggesting a more reliable presence on the mound compared to Bassitt. However, his 4.12 xERA indicates he might have been somewhat fortunate, suggesting potential vulnerability.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have struggled with power, ranking 25th in home runs, while Boston’s lineup, led by Jarren Duran, is a robust 7th in both home runs and overall offensive rankings. Toronto’s bullpen, ranked 24th, could be a liability against Boston’s 14th-ranked unit.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Blue Jays hold a slight edge with a 52% win probability, suggesting a tightly contested matchup where every run will count. With both teams having projected low run totals, this game promises to be a strategic battle.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+100)
  The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Connor Wong has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph dropping to 80.7-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Triston Casas hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Chris Bassitt has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball bats like Nathan Lukes usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+15.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.10 Units / 59% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)