Starting Lineup for Rangers vs Blue Jays – July 28, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre on July 28, 2024, in the third game of their series. Toronto, sitting at 48-56, has struggled this season, while Texas holds a slightly better but still middling 51-54 record. Both teams have underwhelming offenses, with Toronto’s lineup ranking 22nd in MLB and Texas just a notch higher at 21st.

The Blue Jays emerged victorious in their last meeting on July 27, defeating the Rangers 7-3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on fire for Toronto, hitting .450 with a 1.410 OPS over the last week. On the flip side, Robbie Grossman has been the standout for Texas, batting .500 in his last four games. However, Toronto’s bullpen, ranked 22nd, will need to tighten up to maintain any advantage.

On the mound, the Blue Jays will start Jose Berrios, who has a season record of 8-8 with a 4.08 ERA. Berrios has shown signs of luck this season, with his 4.59 xFIP suggesting regression. In his last start, Berrios pitched five innings, allowing three earned runs but walking six batters—a performance indicating inconsistency.

Texas counters with Jon Gray, who boasts a 5-4 record and a solid 3.73 ERA. However, his 4.47 xERA suggests he’s also been fortunate. Gray’s last outing was strong, going eight innings with just one earned run. Despite his good ERA, Gray’s strikeout rate is a mediocre 19.8%, and he struggled against a low-strikeout Blue Jays lineup.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, this game is a coin flip, projecting both teams to have a 50% win probability. Betting markets slightly favor the Rangers with a -125 Moneyline, implying a 53% win probability.

Given their recent surge and the projection systems, betting on Toronto could offer value. The Rangers’ slight edge in betting odds creates an opportunity for savvy bettors to back the Blue Jays in what is expected to be a closely contested contest.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jon Gray – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Over his previous 3 outings, Jon Gray has experienced a substantial decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2024 rpm over the whole season to 1967 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Robbie Grossman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Robbie Grossman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-135)
  The Texas Rangers projected offense grades out as the 4th-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Tallying 17.7 outs per outing this year on average, Jose Berrios places in the 86th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Kevin Kiermaier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Kevin Kiermaier is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 36 games (+16.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+8.65 Units / 31% ROI)