Starting Lineup for Orioles vs Marlins – July 25, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles are set to face off on July 25, 2024, at LoanDepot Park in the final game of their three-game interleague series. The Marlins, who pulled off an upset with a 6-3 win yesterday, will be trying to build on that momentum.

The Marlins have endured a tough season, sitting at 37-65, while the Orioles are enjoying a strong campaign with a 60-41 record. This game features an intriguing pitching matchup: Miami will send Roddery Munoz, the #322 ranked starting pitcher, while Baltimore counters with Corbin Burnes, the #26 ranked starter in MLB.

Munoz has struggled this season, posting a 5.14 ERA and a 1-5 record. His peripheral stats suggest he might even be pitching better than his ERA indicates. His xERA of 5.87 and FIP of 6.66 show that he’s likely been lucky so far. Munoz projects to have a rough outing today, averaging 4.5 innings, 3.3 earned runs, and 3.6 strikeouts.

Conversely, Burnes has been stellar, sporting a 10-4 record and a 2.38 ERA. However, even Burnes might see some regression, as his 3.37 xFIP suggests. Burnes is expected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 5.6 batters on average.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 29th in MLB, especially struggling with power, ranking 29th in home runs. Jazz Chisholm has been their standout, leading the team with 13 home runs and 21 stolen bases. Over the last week, Vidal Brujan has been on fire, batting .500 with a 1.350 OPS.

The Orioles, on the other hand, boast the 2nd best offense in MLB and lead the league in home runs. Gunnar Henderson has been their best hitter, posting a .285 average with 28 home runs and a .941 OPS. Colton Cowser has been a standout recently, batting .412 with a 1.206 OPS over the last seven days.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a 65% win probability against Miami’s 35%. The Marlins are a +195 underdog, but their bullpen, ranked 6th by our Power Rankings, could be a decisive factor, especially since the Orioles’ bullpen is ranked 21st. If Miami can build on their surprising win yesterday, they might have a fighting chance against a strong Baltimore squad.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Corbin Burnes has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Miami’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Anthony Santander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-205)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup grades out as the strongest of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+190)
  Given the 1.58 deviation between Roddery Munoz’s 5.14 ERA and his 6.72 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year and ought to perform worse the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Xavier Edwards has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 8th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-155)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 86 games (+10.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+13.00 Units / 81% ROI)