Starting Lineup for Braves vs D-Backs – (July 11, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field on July 11, 2024, both teams approach the game with differing stakes. The Braves, with a 51-40 record, are having a strong season, while the Diamondbacks are hovering around .500 at 46-47. In the National League standings, the Braves are looking to secure a better playoff position, whereas the D-Backs are more focused on staying competitive.

The D-Backs enter this matchup after a 7-5 victory over the Braves on July 10, a game that was projected to be closely contested. Both teams have shown they are capable of tight battles, and today’s matchup is expected to follow suit.

Brandon Pfaadt is slated to start for Arizona. Ranked the 81st best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Pfaadt has been slightly unlucky this season. His 4.19 ERA is misleading, given his lower xERA of 3.51. Despite his average 3-6 record, Pfaadt is poised for a bounce-back performance.

On the other side, Max Fried, the Braves’ ace and the 8th best starting pitcher per the same rankings, will take the mound. Fried sports an impressive 3.18 ERA, although his xERA suggests he might have been a bit fortunate. He’s coming off a rough outing on July 5, where he allowed 5 earned runs over 6 innings. The Braves will hope for a return to form from their left-hander.

Offensively, the D-Backs have the 10th best lineup in baseball, propelled by Christian Walker’s 22 home runs and 0.839 OPS. The Braves, ranked 13th in overall offense, rely on Marcell Ozuna, who boasts a 0.942 OPS along with 24 home runs. With both offenses capable of putting up runs, the game total of 8.0 runs seems appropriate.

The Diamondbacks’ bullpen, ranked 17th, and the Braves’, ranked 7th, both factor heavily into the game’s dynamics. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves hold a 55% win probability, higher than their 52% implied probability. This indicates some value on the Braves, assuming Fried can rebound and the Braves’ offense can find its stride.

With both teams having shown competitive fire in this series, today’s game promises to be another intense contest. Betting markets see this as a close game, but the projections slightly favor Atlanta to come out on top.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Max Fried figures to be at an advantage being matched up with 7 batters in the projected offense who bat from the opposite side in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Adam Duvall – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.307) implies that Adam Duvall has experienced some negative variance this year with his .259 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Out of all SPs, Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball spin rate of 2551 rpm ranks in the 97th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Randal Grichuk is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks (19.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+12.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 71 games (+23.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Ozzie Albies has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.50 Units / 46% ROI)