Simulation and Insights for Red Sox vs Giants Match Preview – Saturday June 21, 2025

Boston Red Sox

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants will host the Boston Red Sox on June 21, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series. After a competitive matchup yesterday, where the Red Sox emerged victorious with a score of 7-5, both teams look to capitalize on their respective strengths. The Giants, currently 42-34, are having a solid season, while the Red Sox sit at 40-37, showing above-average performance.

On the mound for the Giants is Landen Roupp, who has had an inconsistent year with a 4-5 record and a 3.99 ERA, ranking him as the 103rd best starting pitcher in MLB. Roupp’s last outing was particularly rough, as he allowed six earned runs in just two innings. However, he projects to allow only 2.2 earned runs today, which could play to the Giants’ advantage if he can control his walks—he’s been prone to giving up 1.7 walks on average.

Brayan Bello, the Red Sox’s starter, has been more reliable, with a 3-1 record and a 3.49 ERA, placing him 88th in the league. Bello’s recent performance included a stellar outing where he pitched seven innings without allowing a run. While he projects to allow 2.7 earned runs today, his high walk rate (10.8 BB%) could work in favor of the Giants, who are among the league’s most patient offenses, ranking 3rd in walks drawn.

The Giants’ offense has struggled, ranking 23rd overall, while the Red Sox boast the 8th best offense in MLB. Despite this, the Giants’ bullpen is rated 2nd, which could be crucial if the game remains close. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, betting markets see this as a tight contest, but the Giants have a slight edge with their home-field advantage and superior bullpen depth.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Brayan Bello turned in a great performance in his last start and gave up 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Wilyer Abreu tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Landen Roupp.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Boston’s 90.7-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the league: #1 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Landen Roupp will post an average of 4.8 strikeouts in today’s game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Daniel Johnson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Daniel Johnson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Heliot Ramos has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-155)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 32 away games (+13.05 Units / 35% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+10.30 Units / 68% ROI)