Miami Marlins
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)-185
As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Miami Marlins on August 16, 2025, they enter the matchup riding a wave of momentum after winning the first game of the series. The Red Sox are currently 67-56, showcasing an above-average season anchored by a potent offense that ranks 5th in MLB. In contrast, the Marlins sit at 58-64, struggling with an average offense that ranks 18th overall.
The matchup on the mound features Brayan Bello for Boston, who has been solid this season with an 8-6 record and a stellar ERA of 3.25. Bello’s performance has been bolstered by his advanced statistics, ranking him as the 79th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s above average. However, his xFIP of 4.25 suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune this year. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing around 2.6 earned runs, though his projections indicate potential struggles with 6.0 hits and 1.8 walks allowed.
On the flip side, Cal Quantrill of the Marlins has had a rough go this season, holding a 4-9 record and a 5.09 ERA. Despite this, his xFIP of 4.56 hints that he might be due for a turnaround. Quantrill’s low strikeout rate could pose challenges against a Red Sox lineup that is the 3rd most strikeout-prone team in MLB.
With the Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, and Boston favored with a moneyline of -175, the projections suggest a strong likelihood of a Red Sox victory, particularly given their offensive firepower and the struggles of Quantrill on the mound.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Cal Quantrill’s cut-fastball percentage has increased by 8.8% from last season to this one (13.4% to 22.2%) .Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Jakob Marsee is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Miami Marlins – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Brayan Bello’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (94.5 mph) below where it was last year (95.7 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Wilyer Abreu can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-185)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games at home (+14.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+160)The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 45 games (+14.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+14.20 Units / 142% ROI)