Simulation and Insights for Marlins vs Blue Jays Match Preview – Saturday September 28, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays, hosting the Miami Marlins at Rogers Centre on September 28, 2024, find themselves in a matchup of two struggling teams. The Blue Jays have had a below-average season with a 74-86 record, while the Marlins have had a particularly tough year at 60-100. Toronto, after dropping their previous game against Miami with a disappointing 15-5 loss, will be keen to bounce back.

Yariel Rodriguez, Toronto’s starting pitcher, ranks 138th among MLB starting pitchers, reflecting his below-average performance this season. However, he’s facing a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in overall offensive strength and struggles with power, which could work in Rodriguez’s favor. Despite a high flyball rate, the Marlins’ limited power potential might mitigate the risk of home runs. On the other hand, Rodriguez’s high walk rate could be less of an issue against a Marlins lineup not known for patience at the plate.

Darren McCaughan takes the mound for Miami, and while his 6.87 ERA is concerning, his xFIP suggests potential for better days ahead. McCaughan’s style may suppress Toronto’s power, as the Blue Jays rank 25th in home runs; however, the Blue Jays’ lineup, ranked 15th overall in offense, can still pose a challenge, especially considering their low-strikeout profile.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, favors Toronto substantially, projecting a 67% win probability for the Blue Jays, which is higher than the market’s implied probability. Coupled with a high team total of 5.28 runs, those looking for betting opportunities might see value in siding with Toronto as they seek to redeem themselves after the previous night’s defeat.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Darren McCaughan – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Because groundball batters hold a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Darren McCaughan and his 37.5% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in this matchup going up against 0 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-220)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.280) provides evidence that Xavier Edwards has had positive variance on his side this year with his .319 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Jake Burger, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In the last 14 days, Spencer Horwitz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games at home (+12.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 71 games (+13.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)