Simulation and Insights for Marlins vs Blue Jays Match Preview – Saturday September 28, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to take on the Miami Marlins in the second game of their interleague series at Rogers Centre, both teams find themselves playing out a string of games toward the end of disappointing seasons. The Blue Jays sit at 74-86, a below-average year by their standards, while the Marlins have struggled through a dismal 60-100 season. Toronto is a big favorite heading into this matchup, especially after suffering an unexpected 15-5 loss to Miami on September 27, 2024.

Yariel Rodriguez will take the mound for the Blue Jays. He enters the game ranked 133rd out of approximately 350 pitchers in MLB, a signal of his below-average performance this season. Rodriguez’s 4.41 ERA is considered average, although his ability to limit earned runs today could give Toronto the upper hand. His high fly-ball rate might not spell trouble against a Marlins offense that ranks 27th in home runs this year.

On the flip side, Miami’s Xzavion Curry is expected to start. Curry has been notably ineffective, as evidenced by his 5.02 ERA and a low-strikeout rate of 17.4 K% this year. Facing a Blue Jays offense that is the 6th least strikeout-prone in MLB might be a tough task. However, with both bullpens ranked in the bottom third of MLB, the starting pitching matchups could dictate a lot about the potential outcome.

In terms of projections, THE BAT X— the leading MLB projection system—gives Toronto a 66% chance of victory, higher than the betting market’s implied probability of 61%. While both teams have seen their fair share of struggles, the numbers suggest Toronto might have an edge in making amends for Friday’s defeat.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Xzavion Curry – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Xzavion Curry to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Based on Statcast data, Xavier Edwards ranks in the 0th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at .000.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dane Myers, Jake Burger, Connor Norby, Griffin Conine).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  With 6 bats who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Yariel Rodriguez should benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Davis Schneider has big-time power (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (29.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Xzavion Curry has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Schneider.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games at home (+12.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 71 games (+13.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-145)
  Addison Barger has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+9.25 Units / 20% ROI)