Miami Marlins
Toronto Blue Jays
(-110/-110)-165
As we edge closer to the end of the 2024 MLB season, the Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins are set for the second game of their series at Rogers Centre on September 28. Neither team is chasing postseason dreams, with the Blue Jays holding a 74-86 record, striving to finish the season respectably, while the Marlins languish at 60-100, enduring a rough campaign.
Toronto, coming off a win in the series opener, is favored today with an implied win probability of 60%, whereas the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives them an even stronger 66% chance of victory. This suggests potential value in betting on the Blue Jays. Yariel Rodriguez takes the mound for Toronto, sporting a 1-7 Win/Loss record and an ERA of 4.41. While his season hasn’t been stellar, he faces a Marlins lineup ranked 29th in offensive strength, which may play to his advantage.
On the flip side, Miami’s Xzavion Curry faces Toronto’s average-ranked offense, but his 5.02 ERA and a concerning 5.56 xERA outline a challenging outing. The Blue Jays, although not power-heavy with the 25th ranking in home runs, are projected to score 5.21 runs on average, according to THE BAT X, which is substantially higher than Miami’s projection.
The matchup’s dynamic is intriguing, with both starters being high-flyball pitchers. Toronto’s limited power might neutralize Curry’s vulnerability, while Rodriguez’s control issues might not be tested by Miami’s impatient bats, giving him a slight edge.
In terms of bullpen depth, Toronto has the 25th-ranked bullpen, which is notably better than Miami’s at 29th. As the Blue Jays look to close the series strong at home, the combination of these factors positions them as firm favorites in this contest.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Xzavion Curry – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Xzavion Curry to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-220)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.280) provides evidence that Xavier Edwards has had positive variance on his side this year with his .319 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Connor Norby, Jake Burger).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under Total BasesIn the last 14 days, Spencer Horwitz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Toronto Blue Jays – 2H MoneylineThe Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games at home (+12.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 71 games (+13.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Jesus Sanchez has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)