Simulation and Insights for Dodgers vs D-Backs Match Preview – Thursday September 25, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 25, 2025, they find themselves in a pivotal matchup. The Dodgers, sitting comfortably with an 88-69 record, have already positioned themselves well within the playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, with an 80-77 record, are looking to close the season strong but have struggled throughout the year. In their last outing, the Dodgers secured a commanding win, which they’ll look to build upon against a Diamondbacks team that has been average at best.

In this National League West showdown, Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound for Arizona. Despite being ranked as the 82nd best starter in MLB, Gallen’s numbers indicate a tough year, with a 13-14 record and a 4.70 ERA. His projections suggest he’ll go approximately 5.2 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs, but he needs to improve upon his 1.9 walks average to keep the Dodgers’ offense at bay.

On the other hand, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be pitching for Los Angeles, boasting a remarkable 2.58 ERA and a ranking as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections are elite, with expectations of pitching 5.8 innings and allowing just 1.9 earned runs. With strikeout potential at 6.0 batters per game, he represents a significant challenge for the Diamondbacks’ lineup.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 4th in MLB, showcasing solid talent despite their inconsistent performance this season. Conversely, the Dodgers have excelled, ranking 2nd overall in offense, making this matchup particularly intriguing. Given the Dodgers’ recent form and the Diamondbacks’ struggles, Los Angeles is favored to continue their winning ways as they look to secure an important victory and further solidify their playoff positioning.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Given that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (49.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 4 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Max Muncy is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-155)
  The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Zac Gallen has been unlucky this year, putting up a 4.70 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.26 — a 0.44 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 9.2% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes them the #9 offense in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 48 games (+17.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+10.75 Units / 13% ROI)