Simulation and Insights for Dodgers vs Cardinals Match Preview – Saturday June 07, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 7, 2025, both teams are coming off strong performances, setting the stage for an exciting matchup. The Dodgers notched another victory in their last game, continuing to showcase their dominance this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are looking to build on their good record of 35-28 as they aim to close the gap on the Dodgers, who sit at 38-26.

This matchup features a promising pitching duel between Erick Fedde and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Fedde, despite being ranked 145th among starting pitchers, has shown flashes of potential with a decent ERA of 3.82 this year. However, he has struggled with control, boasting a high walk rate of 10.2%, which could be problematic against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for drawing walks. Fedde projects to pitch around 5.4 innings with an average of 3.2 earned runs allowed—numbers that may not suffice against a tough opponent.

On the other hand, Yamamoto has established himself as one of the elite pitchers in the league, currently ranked 6th overall. With a stellar ERA of 2.39, he is projected to allow only 2.2 earned runs while striking out an average of 5.5 batters. His consistency could be the key to keeping the Cardinals’ offense, which ranks 10th overall but struggles in home runs, at bay.

The Cardinals’ offense has been solid, especially in batting average, but they rank 24th in home runs and stolen bases, suggesting they may need to rely on timely hitting to overcome the Dodgers, who boast the best offense in MLB. The projections suggest a favorable outcome for Los Angeles, but with a moneyline of -185, the Dodgers may not offer much value to bettors. Conversely, the Cardinals, sitting at +160, could present an intriguing opportunity for those looking to back the underdog.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In the past two weeks, Tommy Edman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-190)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense grades out as the strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Erick Fedde has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 4.7 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Ivan Herrera has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 102-mph average to last season’s 91.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+165)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+12.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.45 Units / 90% ROI)