See the Weather Forecast for Tigers vs Guardians – Monday, October 7th, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians

As the American League Division Series continues on October 7, 2024, at Progressive Field, the Cleveland Guardians, currently sitting in a competitive playoff spot, prepare to host the Detroit Tigers, who are not in playoff contention. The stakes are high for Cleveland as they aim to secure their position. The Guardians dropped their last matchup, making this game pivotal in the series.

On the mound for Cleveland is Matthew Boyd, a lefty with an 8-game start history this year, boasting a 2-2 record and an impressive 2.72 ERA. While Boyd’s ERA suggests he’s been lucky given his higher xFIP, he’s expected to pitch 4.4 innings, allowing 1.6 earned runs on average. Boyd’s tendency to strike out batters aligns well against a Tigers offense ranked 6th in strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge.

Opposing him is another southpaw, Tarik Skubal, who has been a workhorse for the Tigers with 31 starts and an 18-4 record. Skubal enters with a stellar 2.39 ERA, although his SIERA suggests a touch of fortune. He’s projected to clock in 5 innings while allowing 1.6 earned runs. Despite his strikeout prowess, he’ll face a Guardians lineup that ranks 4th in the league for least strikeouts, potentially neutralizing his strength.

The Guardians’ offense ranks 17th, with an average power ranking buoyed by their 12th rank in home runs. They must capitalize on these strengths against a Tigers team struggling offensively, ranking 25th overall, and in the bottom third for home runs and batting average.

Betting lines reflect a close contest, with Detroit slightly favored at -130. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees this matchup as a dead heat, giving each team a 50% chance of victory. This game promises to be a tightly contested strategic battle as the Guardians strive to enhance their postseason chances.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+135)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Tarik Skubal is projected to throw 79 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Matthew Boyd will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Andres Gimenez is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Detroit (#3-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+15.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 41 away games (+17.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+130/-170)
  Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.45 Units / 42% ROI)