See the Updated Player Rankings for Yankees vs Orioles – 7/14/24

New York Yankees

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Baltimore Orioles

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles are set to square off in the final game of their three-game series on July 14, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This American League East showdown features two top-tier offenses and a pair of pitchers looking to find their footing.

The Orioles, currently boasting a 57-38 record, sit one game behind the Yankees in the standings. Both teams have been having stellar seasons, with the Yankees holding a slight 58-39 edge. In their last meeting on July 13, the Yankees secured a decisive 6-1 victory, highlighted by a strong offensive showing and solid pitching.

Dean Kremer is slated to start for the Orioles. Kremer, a right-hander, has struggled this season, posting a 4.42 ERA and a 5.00 FIP. His high flyball rate (40%) could spell trouble against a powerful Yankees lineup, ranked 2nd in home runs. Kremer has faced challenges with consistency, especially evidenced by his previous start where he allowed 5 earned runs over 4 innings.

On the mound for the Yankees is left-hander Carlos Rodon. Rodon, with a 4.63 ERA, has been somewhat unlucky according to his 3.92 SIERA. Despite his above-average status as the #85 best starting pitcher, Rodon’s high flyball rate (44%) might be a concern against the Orioles, who lead the league in home runs. Rodon projects to allow fewer earned runs but will need to navigate a potent Orioles lineup effectively.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 2nd in MLB, with standout performances from Gunnar Henderson, who has accumulated 27 home runs and a .955 OPS. The Yankees, ranked 4th, are anchored by Aaron Judge, boasting a league-leading 34 home runs and a stellar 1.114 OPS.

The matchup between these two power-hitting teams and their fly ball-prone pitchers suggests a high-scoring affair, reflected in the current game total of 9.0 runs. Betting markets and advanced projections both see this as a close contest, with the Yankees holding a slight edge in implied win probability at 51% compared to the Orioles’ 49%. Yet, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also favors the Yankees with a 53% win probability.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Carlos Rodon’s fastball velocity of 94.7 mph ranks in the 76th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  Anthony Volpe is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-120)
  The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Dean Kremer is projected to throw 85 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 10th-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Gunnar Henderson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.2-mph average to last year’s 94-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Baltimore’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in baseball: #2 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 80 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 games (+11.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+125/-160)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 32 games (+10.95 Units / 34% ROI)