See the Updated Player Rankings for White Sox vs Tigers – September 27, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park on September 27, 2024, the contrast between these two teams is stark. The Tigers, with an 85-74 record, are having a solid season and remain in contention within the American League Central. Meanwhile, the White Sox, at a dismal 39-120, have endured a season to forget.

Detroit sends Casey Mize to the mound, a right-hander who is looking to improve his 2-6 record and 4.36 ERA. Mize’s performances have been average this year, but he faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 30th in both team batting average and home runs, making this a potentially favorable matchup for him. Mize’s groundball tendencies could neutralize Chicago’s lack of power, and his low walk rate might not be exploited by the impatient White Sox hitters, who lead the league in fewest walks.

The White Sox counter with Garrett Crochet, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 3rd in the Power Rankings. Despite his talent, Crochet’s 6-12 record and 3.68 ERA suggest some bad luck, as indicated by his impressive 2.40 xFIP. However, his short projected outing of just 3.5 innings could test the depth of Chicago’s bullpen, which ranks 27th.

Offensively, the Tigers have struggled, ranked 23rd in batting average and 24th in home runs, but Jace Jung has been a bright spot recently, boasting a .600 batting average and 1.600 OPS over the past week. The White Sox’s Korey Lee has been similarly hot, hitting .556 with two home runs in his last four games.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Tigers are favored with a 57% win probability, while the White Sox stand at 43%. Despite both teams’ offensive challenges, Detroit’s superior bullpen and home-field advantage could be pivotal.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Garrett Crochet’s 96.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 96th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under Total Bases
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luis Robert Jr.’s true offensive ability to be a .317, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .032 gap between that mark and his actual .285 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Casey Mize is projected to throw 78 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  In the last 14 days, Matt Vierling’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Parker Meadows hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 46 games (+18.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under Team Total
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 away games (+12.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Trey Sweeney has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 16 games at home (+4.95 Units / 29% ROI)