See the Updated Player Rankings for Royals vs Padres – June 20, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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San Diego Padres

On June 20, 2025, the San Diego Padres host the Kansas City Royals at Petco Park in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Currently, the Padres sit at 40-34, showcasing an above-average season, while the Royals, with a record of 37-38, find themselves at a more average clip. Both teams are coming off victories in their last games—San Diego edged out their opponent 5-3, and Kansas City won decisively 4-1.

The matchup features two right-handed starters: Nick Pivetta for the Padres and Michael Lorenzen for the Royals. Pivetta, ranked as the 53rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been impressive this season with a 7-2 record and a solid 3.40 ERA. He projects to pitch around 5.7 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, which indicates a strong outing is likely. In contrast, Lorenzen has struggled, sitting among the bottom tier of pitchers with a 4-7 record and a 4.91 ERA. His projections suggest he may allow around 3.0 earned runs over approximately 5.5 innings, but he has shown some signs of improvement with a lower SIERA and xERA.

Offensively, the Padres rank as the 20th best team in MLB, indicating their lineup has not been particularly potent. However, they may have an edge against Lorenzen, who has a low strikeout rate and may struggle to capitalize against the Padres’ low-strikeout offense. The game total is currently set at a modest 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a lower-scoring affair. Given their stronger pitching and a favorable matchup against Lorenzen, the Padres should feel confident as betting favorites heading into this intriguing interleague contest.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Michael Lorenzen’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (61.2% vs. 51.7% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Vinnie Pasquantino pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  In his last outing, Nick Pivetta was in good form and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 12.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The San Diego Padres (18.5 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy set of batters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 54 games (+17.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+9.70 Units / 162% ROI)