See the Updated Player Rankings for Rockies vs Tigers – 9/11/24

Colorado Rockies

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers and Colorado Rockies face off on September 11, 2024, both teams are looking to improve their standings. The Tigers hold a record of 74-71, sitting in a middle-of-the-pack position, while the Rockies have struggled significantly this season with a disappointing 54-91 record. In their previous matchup just yesterday, the Tigers dominated, winning 11-0, and showcased their potential as they attempt to build on that performance.

The Tigers are projected to start Casey Mize, who has had an inconsistent year with a 2-6 record and an ERA of 4.30. Despite being ranked as the 131st best starting pitcher in MLB, Mize has shown flashes of ability, and his low strikeout percentage could play in his favor against a Rockies lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. However, Mize’s tendency to give up hits (averaging 5.3 per game) could be a concern.

On the other side, Tanner Gordon, who has had a rough season with a 0-5 record and an alarming ERA of 7.55, takes the mound for the Rockies. The advanced projections indicate that he may have been unlucky this season, but he remains one of the worst pitchers in the league. Gordon’s performance could be a critical factor as he faces a Tigers offense that, despite ranking 25th overall in MLB, has shown the ability to score runs, especially after their last game.

The projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.54 runs for the Tigers, indicating confidence they will continue their offensive surge. With Detroit’s bullpen ranked 10th in MLB, they should be able to hold any lead they build, making them a strong bet heading into this matchup.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tanner Gordon – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average pitcher, Tanner Gordon has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -7.5 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 13th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .319 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Casey Mize will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Rogers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jake Rogers has strong power (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (31.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tanner Gordon has a pitch-to-contact profile (9th percentile K%) — great news for Rogers.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-205)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 57 games (+13.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Zach McKinstry has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 34% ROI)