See the Updated Player Rankings for Red Sox vs Rangers – 3/29/25

Boston Red Sox

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on March 29, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with identical records of 1-1, showcasing an average start to the season. This game marks the third in their series, and the stakes are high as they look to gain momentum early in the year. In their last outing, the Rangers fell to the Red Sox, who are riding a wave of confidence after a strong performance.

The matchup on the mound features Tyler Mahle for the Rangers and Walker Buehler for the Red Sox. Mahle, ranked as the 131st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, has had a rocky start to the season. His projections indicate he will pitch roughly 4.9 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, with a concerning average of 4.4 hits and 1.4 walks. This suggests he may struggle to keep the Red Sox lineup at bay.

On the other side, Buehler’s projections are similarly troubling, as he is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. He is projected to pitch 4.7 innings, yielding 2.6 earned runs, while allowing 4.8 hits and 1.5 walks. With both pitchers underperforming, this could lead to a high-scoring game.

The current Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for an offensive showcase. Both teams have an implied team total of 4.50 runs, indicating a closely contested matchup. Bettors may find value in the Rangers, who have shown flashes of potential, especially with home-field advantage at Globe Life Field. With both teams looking to improve their standing early in the season, this game could be pivotal for their confidence moving forward.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In today’s game, Josh Smith is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (85th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+11.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 64 away games (+6.60 Units / 9% ROI)