See the Updated Player Rankings for Red Sox vs Blue Jays – 9/24/24

Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox on September 24, 2024, at Rogers Centre, both teams find themselves in the thick of the American League East rivalry. The Blue Jays, with a 73-84 record, are having a below-average season and have been eliminated from division contention. The Red Sox, at 79-78, are performing at an average level and are still in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.

In yesterday’s series opener, the Red Sox edged out the Blue Jays, adding more pressure on Toronto to bounce back. The pitching matchup features Bowden Francis for the Blue Jays and Brayan Bello for the Red Sox. Francis, despite his solid 3.47 ERA, is ranked as the 165th-best pitcher, suggesting he’s been a bit fortunate this season. Bello, ranked 66th, sports a 4.49 ERA but an xFIP of 3.88, indicating he’s been unlucky and might be due for better results.

The offenses present an intriguing clash. Toronto’s lineup ranks 15th overall, but they struggle with power, sitting 25th in home runs. Meanwhile, Boston boasts the 7th-best offense, with the same ranking in both batting average and home runs. This disparity could be pivotal, especially against Bello, whose groundball tendencies (51% GB) might neutralize Toronto’s lack of power.

The bullpens further tilt the balance towards Boston, with their pen ranked 16th compared to Toronto’s 25th. While betting odds slightly favor Toronto (-120), THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives both teams a 50% win probability, highlighting the potential for a tightly contested game. Toronto’s recent offensive spark from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a .419 batting average over the last week, might be crucial in swinging the momentum in their favor.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Brayan Bello’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (55.3% compared to 43.1% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme flyball bats like Trevor Story are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bowden Francis.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Triston Casas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Over his last 3 games started, Bowden Francis has experienced a notable decrease in his fastball velocity: from 92.2 mph over the entire season to 90.8 mph in recent games.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Spencer Horwitz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 8.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 55 games at home (+15.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.10 Units / 50% ROI)
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+155/-205)
  Tyler O’Neill has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+7.65 Units / 30% ROI)