San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
(+100/-120)+170
As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the San Diego Padres on August 18, 2024, both teams are coming off a matchup yesterday where the Rockies suffered an 8-3 defeat against the Padres. This contest at Coors Field marks the third game of a critical series for both teams, though the stakes differ significantly. The Rockies, at 45-79, are struggling mightily this season, ranking 25th in the league in bullpen effectiveness, while the Padres sit comfortably at 70-54, boasting a 4th-best bullpen.
Pitching is set to play a pivotal role in today’s game, with the Rockies projecting to start Bradley Blalock, who has struggled to find consistency. Blalock ranks 256th among MLB pitchers, and although his ERA of 4.05 seems decent, his xFIP of 4.93 suggests he has been fortunate and may face difficulties ahead. He averages just 4.5 innings per start, allowing an alarming 3.2 earned runs.
On the other side, Joe Musgrove takes the mound for the Padres. Despite a subpar win/loss record of 3-4, Musgrove is ranked 61st in MLB, indicating he is above average. His 5.20 ERA is concerning, but his xFIP of 4.45 indicates he could be due for a turnaround. With a high strikeout rate against a Rockies lineup that ranks 3rd in strikeouts, Musgrove holds a significant advantage.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections suggest the Rockies have a higher chance of victory than the betting odds imply, presenting potential value for those willing to take a risk on the underdog. The Rockies are projected to score 5.26 runs, while the Padres are estimated at 6.57 runs, setting the stage for what could be an exciting matchup.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Joe Musgrove – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Joe Musgrove’s slider utilization has increased by 7.9% from last year to this one (14.5% to 22.4%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Kyle Higashioka has strong power (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bradley Blalock struggles to strike batters out (24th percentile K%) — great news for Higashioka.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- San Diego Padres – 2H MoneylineThe San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.4-mph EV last year has decreased to 84-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Aaron Schunk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Schunk in the 5th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+170)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 46 games at home (+7.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-195)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 44 games (+13.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 away games (+9.75 Units / 41% ROI)