San Diego Padres
Toronto Blue Jays
(+100/-120)-165
The Toronto Blue Jays will host the San Diego Padres at Rogers Centre on May 21, 2025, for the second game of their interleague series. After winning the first game, Toronto continues to navigate a challenging season with a record of 23-24, placing them in the middle of the pack. In contrast, San Diego boasts a solid 27-19 record and is enjoying a strong campaign.
On the mound, the Blue Jays are projected to start Kevin Gausman, a right-handed pitcher with a 4.59 ERA this season. Despite having an average year, Gausman has shown signs of being unlucky, as evidenced by his 3.78 xFIP, suggesting he could improve moving forward. Gausman projects to pitch about 5.8 innings today, allowing roughly 3.1 earned runs. However, he faces a Padres lineup that ranks 11th in MLB, yet has struggled to hit with power this season, ranking 6th lowest in home runs.
Randy Vasquez, also a right-handed pitcher, will take the hill for San Diego. Vasquez has a commendable ERA of 3.45 this year, but his high xFIP of 5.94 suggests he may be due for a regression. The projections indicate that he will pitch around 5.1 innings while allowing 3.1 earned runs, but he is less likely to rack up strikeouts against a low-strikeout Blue Jays offense.
Betting odds favor the Blue Jays with a moneyline of -155, indicating a high implied team total of 4.66 runs. Meanwhile, the Padres sit at +135, reflecting a more modest expected output of 3.84 runs. With Toronto’s strong bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, they may be well-positioned to capitalize on any late-game opportunities, making this matchup one to watch closely.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Randy Vasquez’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (68.1% compared to 55.9% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.2) may lead us to conclude that Manny Machado has experienced some negative variance this year with his 9.5 actual HR/600.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)In his last start, Kevin Gausman performed well and gave up 2 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Anthony Santander has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (98% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.8% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+125)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Bo Bichette – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)Bo Bichette has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+14.40 Units / 160% ROI)