Washington Nationals
Seattle Mariners
(-115/-105)-120
On May 29, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Washington Nationals at T-Mobile Park for the third game in their interleague series. The Mariners are enjoying a solid season with a 30-24 record, while the Nationals are struggling at 25-30. In their previous matchup, the Mariners edged out the Nationals, adding to their momentum as they look to secure the series win.
Seattle is projected to start Emerson Hancock, who has had a challenging year with a 5.95 ERA and a Power Ranking of #231 among MLB starting pitchers. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as indicated by his 4.31 xFIP, which is significantly lower than his ERA. Hancock is slated to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs on average, but he may face difficulties against a Nationals lineup that has shown flashes of offensive prowess.
On the other side, the Nationals will send out MacKenzie Gore, who boasts a much more favorable 3.47 ERA and ranks #41 among starting pitchers. Gore’s performance has been solid, and the projections indicate that he could allow only 2.3 earned runs while striking out an impressive 7.2 batters per game. However, he too faces challenges, with a projected 4.1 hits allowed.
Offensively, the Mariners rank as the 8th best offense in MLB, boasting significant power with a 6th place ranking in home runs. In contrast, the Nationals sit at 17th overall, struggling with a team batting average of .220, which ranks 20th in the league. This disparity in offensive capabilities could be crucial in determining the outcome of today’s contest.
With both teams’ bullpens ranked around the middle of the pack—15th for the Mariners and 12th for the Nationals—this game could hinge on the starting pitchers’ performances. The Game Total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair is expected, making the Mariners’ slight -110 moneyline worth monitoring for bettors looking for value.
Washington Nationals Insights
- MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)MacKenzie Gore’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (51.2% compared to 44.7% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Robert Hassell III – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Robert Hassell III is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Seattle (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Emerson Hancock’s 2451-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 88th percentile out of all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)J.P. Crawford is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+100)The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 84% ROI)