See the Updated Player Rankings for Guardians vs White Sox – 9/9/24

Cleveland Guardians

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Chicago White Sox

As the Cleveland Guardians visit Guaranteed Rate Field to face the Chicago White Sox on September 9, 2024, the stakes are clear. The Guardians are in the thick of the playoff race with an impressive record of 81-62, while the White Sox are struggling mightily at 33-111, having already been eliminated from division contention. This matchup holds significance for the Guardians as they aim to solidify their position in the postseason.

In their last outing, the White Sox managed a surprising 7-2 victory against the Boston Red Sox, a bright spot in an otherwise dismal season. Meanwhile, the Guardians faced a tough challenge against the Los Angeles Dodgers, suffering a 4-0 defeat. The Guardians will look to bounce back against a White Sox team that ranks 30th in MLB in offensive production, making this a favorable matchup for them.

On the mound, Jared Shuster is projected to start for the White Sox, coming off a short outing in July where he pitched only 2 innings without allowing any earned runs. However, he has struggled throughout the season, with projections indicating he may allow 1.1 earned runs in just 2.0 innings today. Conversely, Joey Cantillo is set to take the hill for the Guardians. Despite a rough season reflected in his 0-3 record and an alarming ERA of 7.71, projections suggest he could see improvement, especially against a White Sox lineup that has the 2nd least walks in MLB.

The leading MLB projection system indicates the Guardians are favored to score heavily, with an implied team total of 5.25 runs. With the Guardians’ offense ranked 17th overall and the White Sox’s bullpen sitting at 30th, the Guardians are well-positioned to capitalize. As the Guardians look to regain momentum, they will aim to exploit the White Sox’s weaknesses in this pivotal matchup.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Joey Cantillo has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 9.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Bo Naylor has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 79.5-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.314) may lead us to conclude that Lenyn Sosa has had bad variance on his side this year with his .245 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Korey Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  When estimating his overall offensive ability, Korey Lee ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 29 games (+2.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 62 away games (+13.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)