See the Updated Player Rankings for Guardians vs Phillies – July 26, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the Cleveland Guardians at Citizens Bank Park on July 26, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are having standout seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 64-38 record and the Guardians closely trailing at 61-41. The Phillies currently sit as significant favorites with a moneyline of -170, implying a 61% win probability.

On the mound for Philadelphia will be Cristopher Sanchez, a left-handed pitcher ranked #33 among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Sanchez has been impressive this season with a 2.97 ERA, although his 3.59 xERA suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate and might see some regression. Sanchez is projected to pitch around 5.7 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs, solidifying his role as a reliable starter for the Phillies. However, his low strikeout rate (20.0 K%) might give the Guardians an advantage, as they rank #5 in least strikeouts in MLB.

The Guardians will counter with right-hander Ben Lively, who has had a decent season with a 3.57 ERA but is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lively’s 4.27 xFIP indicates he’s also been lucky and could struggle against Philadelphia’s potent offense. The Phillies rank 5th in MLB offensively and are known for their power, ranking 6th in home runs. Lively’s high flyball rate (38 FB%) could spell trouble against this powerful lineup, potentially leading to more home runs.

Offensively, the Phillies have been led by Nick Castellanos, who has been on a tear over the last week, hitting .391 with a 1.156 OPS. On the other side, Tyler Freeman has been the standout for the Guardians, boasting a .417 batting average over the last week.

The Phillies’ bullpen ranks 3rd according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Guardians boast the top bullpen in MLB, making late-inning runs a challenging task for both teams. With both offenses and bullpens firing on all cylinders, this game has all the makings of a closely contested battle.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ben Lively is projected to throw 85 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 10th-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Andres Gimenez is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Bryce Harper has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-185)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 56 of their last 90 games (+18.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+160)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 84 games (+6.35 Units / 6% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
  Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+11.25 Units / 49% ROI)