See the Updated Player Rankings for D-Backs vs Nationals – April 5, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Washington Nationals

On April 5, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Nationals Park for the second game of their series. The Nationals are struggling this season, currently holding a record of 1-6, while the Diamondbacks are enjoying a strong start at 5-3. Despite their difficulties, the Nationals’ offense ranks 7th in MLB in power with 12 home runs, which could pose a challenge for Diamondbacks’ starter Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a tendency to give up fly balls.

In their last matchup, the Nationals fell short against the Diamondbacks, continuing their rough stretch. Washington will send Mitchell Parker to the mound, who has an impressive ERA of 0.00 but a concerning xFIP of 4.26. This suggests that while Parker has been fortunate early in the season, his performance may regress. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, but his below-average strikeout rate of 4.1 could be a concern against a potent Diamondbacks lineup.

Eduardo Rodriguez, on the other hand, has a less favorable ERA of 5.06, but his xFIP indicates he has been slightly unlucky, suggesting he may improve. Rodriguez projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which is above average. However, both pitchers are left-handed, which could lead to an interesting dynamic against the opposing lineups.

The Nationals’ bullpen ranks 25th in MLB, while the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is more solid at 14th. With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, betting markets see this as a competitive matchup, with the Nationals currently at +115 on the moneyline. Given their offensive power and the projections indicating potential improvement for Rodriguez, the Nationals could surprise in this tightly contested game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Typically, batters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Mitchell Parker.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the luckiest offense in the game since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Mitchell Parker has utilized his secondary offerings 7.3% less often this year (44.1%) than he did last season (51.4%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Amed Rosario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Since the start of last season, Amed Rosario’s 4.5% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 19th percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 43 games (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 101 games (+29.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-150)
  Randal Grichuk has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.40 Units / 25% ROI)