See the Updated Player Rankings for D-Backs vs Cardinals – May 23, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

St. Louis Cardinals

On May 23, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the opening game of a three-game series at Busch Stadium. Both teams enter this matchup with above-average records, as the Cardinals sit at 27-23 and the Diamondbacks at 26-24. Notably, the Cardinals are coming off a disappointing 5-1 loss in their last game on May 21, while the Diamondbacks also fell short, losing 3-1 in their latest outing.

Miles Mikolas is slated to start for St. Louis, looking to rebound after an impressive performance in his last start, where he pitched 6 innings without giving up an earned run. Despite his #202 ranking among starting pitchers in MLB, his solid ERA of 3.77 indicates potential, although his 5.06 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune this season. Mikolas typically pitches an average of 5.4 innings and is projected to allow around 2.6 earned runs, but his control has been suspect, projecting a troubling 1.1 walks per game.

On the flip side, Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona. He has struggled this season, sporting a 5.14 ERA despite a more favorable 4.15 xFIP. Gallen’s projected performance includes allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters, which is below league average, while facing a high-flying Cardinals offense that ranks 8th in MLB.

Betting markets currently favor the Diamondbacks slightly, offering a moneyline of -120, indicating they are seen as the more likely victors. However, with the Cardinals boasting a robust offensive capability, especially against right-handed pitchers, they may be poised to surprise the betting public and take the victory.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zac Gallen’s 92.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph drop off from last season’s 93.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  In comparison to his 89.2-mph average last year, Corbin Carroll’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Miles Mikolas is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Arizona’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Nolan Gorman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 36% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Victor Scott II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Victor Scott II has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 73% ROI)