See the Updated Player Rankings for Cubs vs Padres – April 14, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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San Diego Padres

The Chicago Cubs head to Petco Park to face off against the San Diego Padres in the first game of their series, with both teams looking to capitalize on strong starts to the season. The Padres currently hold a record of 13-3, showcasing an impressive offense that ranks as the 5th best in MLB this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs maintain an 11-7 record, placing them 2nd in MLB offensive rankings, indicating the potential for a high-scoring matchup.

In their last games, the Padres recently enjoyed a commanding 6-0 victory, while the Cubs secured a solid 4-2 win, suggesting both squads are riding good momentum. The Padres are projected to send Dylan Cease to the mound. Despite his 7.98 ERA, the advanced projections indicate he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.34 xFIP suggests he should perform better going forward. On the other side, Jameson Taillon, also with a less-than-ideal ERA of 6.06, has shown flashes of brilliance, but his low strikeout rate could be problematic against a Padres lineup that rarely strikes out.

The Padres’ offense, bolstered by a .331 team batting average, will look to exploit Taillon’s vulnerabilities. With the Padres’ bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, they have the depth to maintain a lead should Cease find himself in trouble. As betting favorites, the Padres have an implied team total of 4.02 runs, while the Cubs are projected for only 3.48 runs, reflecting the perception of a more favorable matchup for San Diego. With both starting pitchers struggling early in the season but the Padres having the edge in offensive firepower and bullpen strength, they look poised to take this one at home.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+125)
  Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has struggled with his Barrel%; his 8% rate last year has fallen to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected offense today (.321 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .342 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.40 Units / 76% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-165/+125)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.50 Units / 40% ROI)