See the Updated Player Rankings for Cardinals vs Nationals – May 10, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 10, 2025, after the Cardinals shut out the Nationals 10-0 in their previous matchup. Both teams are looking to improve their standing in the National League, with the Nationals currently at 17-22 and the Cardinals at 20-19. While the Nationals are having a rough season, they rank 15th in MLB offense, which is considered average, and they boast the 7th best stolen base rate.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Trevor Williams, who has a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and a troubling ERA of 5.86. Despite these numbers, advanced metrics suggest that Williams has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his 4.10 xFIP, which is more favorable than his ERA. Williams typically pitches around 5.2 innings and is expected to allow 2.6 earned runs today, but his projections show he may struggle with strikeouts, averaging just 3.9 per game.

In contrast, the Cardinals will send Andre Pallante to the mound. Pallante has a 2-2 record with an ERA of 4.75, which is considered average. His 4.06 xFIP suggests he may also have faced some bad luck this year. Pallante’s projections indicate he will pitch about 5.9 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, but he too struggles with strikeouts, averaging 3.5.

Betting markets have set the Game Total at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup. With both teams’ bullpens ranked poorly—26th for the Nationals and 25th for the Cardinals—this game could very well hinge on the starting pitchers’ performances. The Nationals’ offense, while average overall, has shown signs of life and could exploit any weaknesses in the Cardinals’ pitching staff.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Andre Pallante’s slider percentage has increased by 7.7% from last year to this one (17.8% to 25.5%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Masyn Winn is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Trevor Williams’s 86.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.9-mph drop off from last season’s 88.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  James Wood has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last year’s 96.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.65 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jose Tena – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Jose Tena has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 69% ROI)