See the Updated Player Rankings for Cardinals vs Nationals – May 10, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 10, 2025, in a pivotal matchup that could impact both teams’ seasons. The Nationals currently sit at 17-22, struggling in the early part of the season, while the Cardinals are slightly better at 20-19. Both teams are looking to find consistency, and this game is crucial as they continue their series after yesterday’s clash.

In their last meeting, the Cardinals bested the Nationals, which adds pressure on Washington as they aim to bounce back. Trevor Williams is projected to take the mound for the Nationals. Despite his 2-3 record and an alarming ERA of 5.86 this season, advanced stats suggest he may have been unlucky, with a more favorable xFIP of 4.09. Williams’s ability to limit walks will be key, as he projects to allow 1.6 walks today, which can be detrimental against a potent Cardinals lineup.

On the other side, Andre Pallante is expected to start for the Cardinals. He boasts a 2-2 record with a respectable ERA of 4.75. While his strikeout numbers are less impressive, his projections indicate he could limit earned runs more effectively than Williams, allowing an average of just 2.5 earned runs.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 14th in MLB, while the Cardinals are 10th, showcasing a stronger batting average at 2nd in the league. The Nationals’ best hitter has been performing well recently, hitting .368 with 1 home run and 6 RBIs in the last week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ top hitter has been even hotter, with a .400 average and 2 home runs over a similar stretch.

With a high game total of 9.0 runs, betting lines reflect a closely contested game, with the Nationals having an implied team total of 4.45 runs compared to the Cardinals’ 4.55. This matchup sets the stage for an intriguing game where both teams will look to gain momentum as the season progresses.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Andre Pallante’s slider percentage has increased by 7.7% from last year to this one (17.8% to 25.5%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Masyn Winn is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Trevor Williams’s 86.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.9-mph drop off from last season’s 88.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  James Wood has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last year’s 96.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.65 Units / 40% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)