Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays
(+100/-120)+110
As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Houston Astros on August 12, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive stretch of the season, with the Rays sitting at 59-58 and the Astros at 62-55. The Rays, having recently secured a narrow 2-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles, are looking to build momentum, while the Astros come off a dominant 10-2 win against the Boston Red Sox.
This matchup features two contrasting pitchers. The Rays are projected to start Taj Bradley, who has posted a solid 3.07 ERA this season, but his 3.76 xERA suggests he may have been a bit lucky thus far. Bradley’s recent performance was less than stellar, as he allowed 5 earned runs in his last start. In contrast, the Astros will counter with Framber Valdez, who has established himself as an elite pitcher with a 3.46 ERA and an impressive complete game performance in his last outing, where he allowed just 2 earned runs.
Offensively, the Astros rank 11th overall in MLB, bolstered by Yordan Alvarez, who is having a standout season with a .307 batting average and 25 home runs. The Rays, however, struggle at the plate, ranking 22nd in overall offense and 26th in home runs, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on any mistakes made by Valdez.
Betting markets reflect a tight contest, with the Rays currently at +115 and the Astros at -135. However, the leading MLB projection system suggests that the Astros have a better chance of winning than their moneyline indicates. With the Rays’ offense struggling against a strong pitcher like Valdez, the Astros may find themselves in a favorable position to secure another win.
Houston Astros Insights
- Framber Valdez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-210/+160)Compared to the average starter, Framber Valdez has been given an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 4.5 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Yordan Alvarez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 92.9-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Houston Astros – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all major league teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Taj Bradley’s change-up rate has increased by 14.6% from last season to this one (13.9% to 28.5%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Typically, hitters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Framber Valdez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 67 of their last 110 games (+20.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+140)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+13.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+11.15 Units / 38% ROI)