Los Angeles Angels
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)-205
As the Cleveland Guardians host the Los Angeles Angels on June 1, 2025, both teams are looking to find a spark in a crucial American League matchup. The Guardians are currently riding a modest high with their win against the Angels yesterday, closing the game at 7-5. They sit comfortably above .500 with a 31-26 record, while the Angels struggle to find their footing at 26-31, making this clash vital for both squads.
On the mound, Gavin Williams takes the ball for the Guardians, sporting a 4-3 record and an ERA of 4.27 this season. Although his ERA reflects average performance, his advanced metrics indicate a potential regression, as his xERA sits at 4.95. Williams is known for his high walk rate (13.7 BB%), but he faces an Angels offense that has been notoriously impatient, sitting 2nd least in MLB for walks. This could play to his advantage, allowing him to leverage control issues effectively.
In contrast, Jack Kochanowicz takes the hill for the Angels, holding a disappointing 3-6 record with a 5.07 ERA. Recent projections suggest he might allow 2.8 earned runs today, showcasing vulnerabilities against an offense ranked 22nd overall in MLB. The Angels’ strength lies in their power, ranking 3rd in home runs, but they struggle at the plate with a 27th ranking in batting average.
The Guardians’ offense ranks 24th overall, which is unfavorable, but they’ll rely on their best hitter who has recently shown signs of life with a .571 average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Guardians possess the 15th best bullpen in the league, compared to the Angels’ 25th ranking. With an implied team total of 4.96 runs for the Guardians against 3.54 for the Angels, the current betting lines favor the Guardians, presenting a real opportunity for a strong performance at Progressive Field.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)Among all starters, Jack Kochanowicz’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 81st percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Zach Neto has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last season’s 94.5-mph average.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Zach Neto pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Gavin Williams has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 8.3 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Extreme groundball bats like Jose Ramirez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Cleveland Guardians have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-205)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+8.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-190/+145)Luis Rengifo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 75% ROI)