See the Tigers vs Twins Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Saturday August 16th, 2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the Detroit Tigers on August 16, 2025, in a pivotal matchup within the American League Central. The stakes are high for the Tigers, who are enjoying a strong season with a record of 72-52, while the Twins sit at a disappointing 57-65, reflecting a below-average campaign. In their last meeting, the Twins were shut out, falling 7-0 to the Tigers, who have found their rhythm and momentum.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Zebby Matthews, a right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season. Despite being ranked as the 45th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Matthews has struggled with a 5.11 ERA and a 3-4 Win/Loss record. His 30.0% strikeout rate is impressive, especially against a Tigers lineup that ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts. However, Matthews projects to pitch only 4.8 innings and allows an average of 4.8 hits, which could be a concern against a potent Tigers offense.

Casey Mize will take the mound for Detroit, boasting an impressive 11-4 record and a solid 3.50 ERA. While Mize is considered an average pitcher by the projections, his performance has generally been reliable, and he pitched well in his last outing, allowing just 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

Both teams have been inconsistent offensively, with the Twins ranking 21st in the league overall and the Tigers ranking 10th. However, the Twins’ best hitter has shown signs of life recently, hitting a home run in the past week. This matchup could hinge on whether Matthews can capitalize on the Tigers’ strikeout tendencies while Mize continues his strong form. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, it could be a close contest worth watching for bettors.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Casey Mize is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 15th-least on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Over the last 14 days, Zach McKinstry’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  In today’s game, Trey Sweeney is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.3% rate (91st percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Zebby Matthews will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Austin Martin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  There has been a decrease in Austin Martin’s average exit velocity this year, from 87.2 mph last year to 80.3 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, James Outman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 46 games (+13.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 97 games (+9.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 25% ROI)