Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-105/-115)-175
On September 10, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Texas Rangers at Chase Field in what marks the first game of their interleague series. The Diamondbacks currently hold a strong record of 80-64, showcasing their successful season, while the Rangers sit at 70-74, reflecting an average performance. Arizona’s last game saw them overpower the Houston Astros with a 12-6 victory, highlighting their offensive prowess, which ranks as the 1st best in MLB this season.
Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, coming off a remarkable no-hitter in his last start on September 4, where he pitched 6 innings with 0 earned runs and 8 strikeouts. Gallen has been solid this season with an 11-6 record and a 3.69 ERA, ranking him as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ability to limit earned runs will be crucial against a Rangers lineup that ranks 23rd in MLB offensively.
On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi is set to start for the Rangers. He has a respectable 11-7 record and a 3.55 ERA, placing him 49th among pitchers. However, Eovaldi faces a tough challenge against the Diamondbacks’ powerful offense, especially given that he allows a high number of hits and walks on average.
The projections favor the Diamondbacks, who are currently seen as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -170 and an implied team total of 4.49 runs. Meanwhile, the Rangers are underdogs, projected at 3.51 runs. With the Diamondbacks’ elite offense and Gallen’s recent form, they appear well-positioned to continue their winning ways in this matchup.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Nathan Eovaldi has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 4.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Jonah Heim has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 6.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Today, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.7% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Zac Gallen’s curveball usage has jumped by 5% from last season to this one (22.7% to 27.7%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Pavin Smith has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 101.3-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.5-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Arizona Diamondbacks in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .322, which is considerably worse than their actual wOBA of .333 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 89 games (+31.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)Josh Jung has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+14.25 Units / 47% ROI)