See the Starting Lineup for Padres vs Pirates – August 07, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the San Diego Padres on August 7, 2024, they find themselves needing a turnaround after a tough 6-0 loss to the Padres just a day earlier. The Pirates’ record sits at 56-56, indicative of an average season, while the Padres boast a stronger 62-52, positioning them well above average.

Pirates’ starting pitcher Marco Gonzales, ranked 230th among MLB starters, is projected to take the mound today. Gonzales has shown some promise with a 3.72 ERA this season, but his 4.64 xFIP suggests he has benefited from good fortune, and he has struggled recently, with only 2 innings pitched in his last start, allowing 4 earned runs. On the other side, Michael King, the Padres’ ace at 24th overall, has been in great form. He carries a stellar 3.26 ERA and is coming off a solid 6-inning performance where he allowed just 2 earned runs.

The Pirates offense has been a major concern, ranking 28th in MLB, while the Padres are thriving with the 10th best offense overall and leading in team batting average. With the Pirates projected to score just 3.75 runs today, their lineup will need to find ways to overcome the Padres’ strong pitching and significant offensive advantages.

Despite the odds being against them, the projections suggest that the Pirates could pull off an upset, with a closer matchup than their recent performance might indicate. They will need standout efforts from their lineup, particularly from their best hitter, Bryan Reynolds, to challenge King on the mound and turn the tide of this series.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Over his previous 3 starts, Michael King has suffered a notable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2259 rpm over the whole season to 2200 rpm lately.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Tyler Wade – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Against the weak defense of Pittsburgh’s 3rd-worst infield of all teams on the slate), Tyler Wade has a very favorable matchup given his extreme groundball tendencies.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Marco Gonzales – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Marco Gonzales is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+13.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 49 away games (+14.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.25 Units / 28% ROI)