See the Starting Lineup for Marlins vs Rockies – August 28, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Miami Marlins on August 28, 2024, both teams are looking to bolster disappointing seasons. The Rockies sit at the bottom of the National League West with a record of 49-84, while the Marlins are barely above them at 48-84 in the National League East. With both teams struggling, this matchup presents an opportunity for one to gain a much-needed victory in what has become a battle of the underperformers.

In their previous game, the Rockies faced the Marlins and emerged victorious, adding to the Marlins’ woes as they continue to rank as the 29th best offense in MLB this season. The Rockies’ offense, while also underwhelming at 20th, has shown glimpses of power, ranking 10th in home runs. This could be a critical factor in tonight’s game, especially with Kyle Freeland on the mound for the Rockies. Though Freeland’s Win/Loss record stands at 3-6 and his ERA is a troubling 5.70, his 4.31 xFIP suggests he may have been the victim of bad luck this season.

On the other side, Max Meyer will take the hill for the Marlins. Meyer has also struggled, recording a 5.44 ERA, and his low strikeout rate may be a concern facing a Rockies lineup that ranks 3rd in strikeouts. The projections indicate that Freeland is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, while Meyer is projected for 5.0 innings, setting the stage for a game that could see both bullpens tested.

The Rockies currently have a high implied team total of 5.76 runs, hinting that oddsmakers believe their offense could capitalize against Meyer’s struggles. This matchup could offer value to those looking to bet on the Rockies to maintain their recent momentum over the Marlins. With the Game Total set at a hefty 11.0 runs, it’s clear that both teams could find scoring opportunities in this contest.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Max Meyer is projected to throw 82 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• David Hensley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  David Hensley is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Colorado (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Miami Marlins have 5 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cristian Pache, Griffin Conine, David Hensley, Derek Hill, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  The Miami Marlins have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Freeland in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Michael Toglia has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 47 games at home (+6.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 42 games (+20.30 Units / 41% ROI)