See the Score for Astros vs Rangers Game – August 7th, 2024

Houston Astros

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros prepare for their matchup on August 7, 2024, both teams are looking to gain ground in the competitive American League West. The Rangers currently sit at 54-60, struggling in these latter months of the season, while the Astros hold a record of 58-55, marking them as average this year. Despite losing to the Astros 4-2 in their last meeting on August 6, 2024, the Rangers remain a team that might find opportunity in this series.

Pitching will be a key focus, with Texas sending out Jose Urena, who has had a challenging season. Ranked as the 308th best starting pitcher, Urena has a 3-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.70, but his 4.32 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate and could regress. He’s projected to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs today, which, while below average, is vital given his low strikeout rate of 16.4 K% going against a low-strikeout Astros lineup.

On the other hand, Houston counters with Yusei Kikuchi, who’s had a better season, ranking 70th among starting pitchers. Kikuchi holds a 4-9 record but has shown potential with a 3.35 xFIP, indicating he may improve from his ERA of 4.67. His projection for 5.1 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs should put him in a solid position to fend off Texas’s offense, which ranks 23rd overall.

Looking ahead, projections suggest the Rangers have a 51% chance to win today, offering some betting value considering their current moneyline of +115. With the Astros favored at -135, scrutinizing the pitcher matchups and offensive stats will be crucial for bettors.

Houston Astros Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s 95-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 83rd percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Altuve has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph dropping to 82.1-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Yordan Alvarez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Jose Urena is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Globe Life Field — the #5 HR venue among all parks — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (9.7) implies that Josh Smith has had some very good luck this year with his 17.6 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+16.90 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+12.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+15.00 Units / 29% ROI)