Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
(-110/-110)-110
As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays at Globe Life Field on July 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of underwhelming seasons. The Rangers, with a 40-48 record, are struggling, while the Rays are hovering around .500 at 44-44. This American League matchup marks the second game of their series, with the Rangers having blanked the Rays 3-0 in the opener.
The Rangers will be sending left-hander Andrew Heaney to the mound. Heaney has had a tough season, holding a 3-9 record with a 4.04 ERA across 16 starts. Despite a strong performance in his last outing—going 7 innings with 2 earned runs and 10 strikeouts—he is ranked as the 148th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced stats, indicating below-average performance. Heaney’s high-flyball tendency (37% FB rate) might play to his advantage against a Rays lineup that ranks 26th in home runs this season.
Opposite Heaney, right-hander Taj Bradley will take the hill for the Rays. Bradley, ranked 58th among MLB starters, boasts a solid 3.42 ERA and a 3-4 record through 10 starts. However, peripheral stats suggest some luck, with a 4.04 FIP indicating potential regression. Bradley pitched a gem in his last start, going 6 innings with 0 earned runs and 11 strikeouts, but he’ll need to continue his form against a Rangers offense that ranks 21st in MLB.
Offensively, the Rangers lean heavily on Marcus Semien, who has been their standout performer this season. Meanwhile, the Rays will look to Isaac Paredes and Brandon Lowe to power their lineup. Lowe, in particular, has been hot over the last week, boasting a .316 average and three home runs.
Betting markets are evenly split, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a slight edge with a 52% win probability. Today’s game projects to be a tight contest, with both teams expected to score around 4 runs, making this an intriguing matchup for bettors and fans alike.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Taj Bradley’s change-up percentage has risen by 13.9% from last year to this one (13.9% to 27.8%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Jose Siri has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Tampa Bay Rays batters jointly rank among the worst in the league this year ( 3rd-worst) as it relates to their 88-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Andrew Heaney’s 90.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph decline from last year’s 91.9-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Adolis Garcia has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph to 98.3-mph in the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Corey Seager projects as the 11th-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 73 games (+14.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 81 games (+22.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+15.20 Units / 217% ROI)