See the Rangers vs Angels Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Sunday September 29th, 2024

Texas Rangers

@

Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers prepare for their series finale on September 29, 2024, both teams find themselves out of playoff contention in the American League West. The Angels, with a dismal 63-98 record, have struggled throughout the season and were narrowly defeated by the Rangers, 9-8, in their last outing. Meanwhile, the Rangers, standing at 77-84, have experienced a below-average campaign but managed to edge out the Angels in the previous matchup.

On the mound, the Angels will send Jack Kochanowicz to face the Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi. Kochanowicz, ranked as the 270th best starting pitcher in MLB, has shown some luck this year with an ERA of 4.01, though his underlying metrics suggest regression. His last performance, however, was impressive, as he pitched seven scoreless innings. In contrast, Eovaldi, ranked 75th, presents a more reliable option with a solid ERA of 3.96. His recent outing saw him deal seven innings while allowing three earned runs.

Offensively, both teams have underwhelmed this season. The Angels rank 26th in overall offense, struggling particularly with a 27th-ranked team batting average. In contrast, their power has been slightly more consistent, ranking 22nd in home runs. The Rangers’ offense ranks 25th, with a slightly better batting average ranking of 21st and 18th in home runs. Notably, the Angels’ Zach Neto and the Rangers’ Wyatt Langford have been standout performers recently, with Neto boasting a .400 batting average over the last week and Langford hitting four home runs in the same span.

With the Angels as underdogs at +125 and the Rangers favored at -145, the betting markets align with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives the Rangers a 59% chance to win. Despite both teams’ lackluster seasons, this matchup might offer some intrigue, particularly with the Rangers holding a slight edge in pitching and bullpen strength.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)
  Nathan Eovaldi has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 4.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball batters like Marcus Semien generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Texas has performed as the #26 team in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (42% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  The Texas Rangers have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Jack Kochanowicz in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jack Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Jack Lopez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 64 games (+12.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jack Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jack Lopez has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 56% ROI)