See the Odds and Betting Tips for D-Backs vs Giants – September 3rd, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

San Francisco Giants

On September 3, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park in the first game of a crucial series. The Giants, standing at 68-70, are having a mediocre season, while the Diamondbacks boast a solid 77-61 record, signaling their strong performance this year. Despite the Giants’ struggles, they have enjoyed success thanks to their top-ranked bullpen, which remains a key strength.

In their previous outing, the Diamondbacks had a disappointing game, and they will look to bounce back behind Ryne Nelson, who has a 9-6 record and an ERA of 4.22. However, he has been deemed a below-average pitcher in the advanced rankings, suggesting he may not be as effective as his numbers indicate. Conversely, Kyle Harrison of the Giants, despite being ranked #177 among starting pitchers, comes into this game with a solid 4.22 ERA. Harrison has the potential to pitch 5.2 innings and allow approximately 2.5 earned runs—an average outing by his standards.

Offensively, the Giants rank 21st, while the Diamondbacks’ offense shines as the 2nd best in MLB. This stark contrast in offensive production heavily favors Arizona. However, the projections offer a twist: they suggest the Giants could outperform their implied team total of 3.66 runs, aiming for an average of 4.29 runs in this matchup.

With both teams vying for momentum, this matchup promises to be tightly contested. As the Giants look to capitalize on their bullpen strength, a potential upset may be worth considering for bettors.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Ryne Nelson projects to allow an average of 1.4 walks in today’s game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of San Francisco (#2-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Arizona Diamondbacks today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .311, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .333 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  With 7 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Kyle Harrison faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Patrick Bailey has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen ranks as the best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 83 games (+27.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
  Heliot Ramos has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 49 games (+17.35 Units / 35% ROI)